Where every number comes from
The rule behind every drop: a number without a named source does not ship. This page documents each signal we use, how often it refreshes, and what it can and cannot tell you.
Etsy supply counts
The number of active listings returned for an exact search phrase, read live from Etsy. This is the one exact number in niche research: it is Etsy's own count, not an estimate. We read it at scan time and every count in a drop carries its read date. Supply is the denominator of every score we publish.
Google search volume
Monthly US search volumes from Google Ads data. Volumes are averages and move seasonally, so we treat them as demand magnitude, not gospel. While this integration rolls out, drops label demand as signal-based instead of showing a volume, because we do not print estimates dressed as measurements.
Trend direction
Google Trends interest over a 3-month US window, plus rising related queries. Rising and breakout labels are the earliest public warning that a phrase is moving. We filter out non-product noise (image searches, electronics, streaming queries) before anything reaches a drop.
Social momentum
TikTok hashtag co-occurrence: which tags appear alongside a niche's tags on recent videos. Co-tags surface adjacent niches before they show up in search data. Counts are directional and always labeled as social signal.
Event calendar and launch windows
A curated calendar of US-relevant events (seasonal, cultural, astronomical) with production math attached: ideal launch date, last safe order date for standard production, and a hard floor after which the window is closed. The calendar is human-curated by design and marked as such.
Trademark gate
Every candidate passes a green-yellow-red trademark screen before design time. Red candidates are buried regardless of how good their numbers look. This is a screen, not legal advice; sellers remain responsible for their listings.
The score
Each niche gets a transparent 0-100 score. The demand-versus-supply gap dominates the weighting, followed by trend velocity, launch-window urgency and product economics. The same scoring runs a live print-on-demand shop before it runs your report: we eat this cooking first.
What we refuse to do
No invented volumes. No "hot niche" claims without a count and a date. No recycled lists from other people's videos. If a source breaks or a number cannot be verified on scan day, the niche waits a week instead of shipping naked.